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The Indian equities markets once again returned to their winning track after a week of pause for the week ended April 23, 2010, with both the benchmark indices gaining more than half a percent. The start of the week was pretty subdued on the reports that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in US has charged Goldman Sachs & Co. and one of its vice-presidents for defrauding investors by misstating and omitting key facts about a financial product tied to sub-prime mortgages as the US housing market was beginning to falter. The news not only spooked the US markets but faltered the sentiments of the investors across the globe. The Indian markets were also cautious regarding the monetary policy announcement by the apex bank. All the worries of the markets were weeded out when the RBI raised repo, reverse repo and cash reserve ratio (CRR) by 25 basis points (bps) each, which were in line with market expectations of 25-50 bps hike. The rise in repo and reverse repo were effective immediately while the CRR hike have come into effect from April 24. Following this rate revision repo, reverse repo and CRR will now stand at 5.25%, 3.75% and 6% against 5%, 3.5% and 5.75%, respectively. The decision of the apex bank filled a new life in the markets and nothing was there that could have surprised the markets in negative way so the rate sensitive sectors went for a rally afterwards and continued their momentum during rest of the week.
The BSE Sensex hovered in a range of 17,400 to 17,700 while the Nifty traded in a range of 5200 to 5300 during the week and managed to hold its highest level, the major support for the week for both of BSE and NSE came through the gains in broader indices which were up by more than a percent.
The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensex gained 103.20 points or 0.59% to 17,694.20 during the week ended April 23, 2010. The BSE Small-cap index jumped 2.03% or 183.38 points to 9,200.22 while the Mid-cap index gained 1.55%, or 108.60 points to 7,131.95. Among BSE sectoral indices, Bankex was the top gainer up 4.93%, Auto up by 2.40%, Public Sector Unit (PSU) up by 1.45%, Realty up by 1.39%, Consumer Durables (CD) up 0.86%, Capital Goods (CG) up by 0.88%, Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) up by 0.68%. On the other hand, Metal index was the biggest loser, down by 3.14% followed by Information Technology (IT) down 2.16% and Technology (TECk) down by 1.83% in the BSE sectoral space. The S&P CNX Nifty gained 41.50 points or 0.79% to 5361.75. On the National Stock Exchange (NSE), CNX Mid-cap gained 1.17% to 7983.30; CNX Nifty Junior lost 1.13% to 10862.45 and Bank Nifty surged by 4.91% to 9813.3 while CNX IT shed 2.06 % to 6016.15.
The Union cabinet on Friday has approved the infusion of Rs 15,000 crore into the public sector banks over the current fiscal so that they maintain a minimum 8% Tier I capital to meet the credit requirement of the economy. The government will decide on the amount of capital infusion over the next fiscal depending on their third quarter performance in the current fiscal. A number of PSBs including Dena Bank, Indian Bank, Bank of Maharashtra, Central Bank, and Overseas Bank, etc. are likely to benefit from capital infusion plans.
Meanwhile, India’s food inflation was once again found on the rising trajectory, According to the data released by the government, after softening for five weeks, food inflation rose for third consecutive week during the seven days ending April 14 to 17.65% from 17.22% a week ago. The index for food articles group increased by 0.65% to 293.3 from 291.4 in the previous week.
FIIs were net buyers in the equity segment during the week with gross purchases of Rs 13661.50 crore and gross sales of Rs 11728.50 crore, resulting in a net inflow of Rs 1933 crore. They stood as net buyers in the debt segment too with gross purchases of Rs 4136.30 crore and gross sales of Rs 3547.10 crore, leading to an inflow of Rs 589.20 crore.
Outlook for the coming week
The domestic markets have witnessed an overall weak sentiment in the passing week and the indices gyrated in a range, though there were rebound on every decline but the morale remained low lacking any major domestic or international cues. The coming week will witness the expiry of the April F&O series so volatility can be seen towards the end of the week. Sector-wise banking will remain in focus and if the rupee continues to appreciate it will hurt the IT and Technology stocks further.
The Indian Met department came up with a report that the summer monsoon is likely to be normal this year and Rainfall is likely to be 98 percent of the long-term average, allaying fears of spiralling inflation, this event after the market hours of last trading day is likely to make a good impact on the markets next week.
Besides this, there will be lots of result announcement from the major corporates like, Godrej Consumer Products, Kirloskar Brothers, Maruti Suzuki, Sterlite Industries, Yes Bank, Bharti Airtel, Bank of Baroda, canara bank, Reliance Infrastructure, Siemens, United Breweries, Ashok Leyland, Tech Mahindra and ABB etc.
From the global front, events from US and Europe will be closely watched. President Barack Obama will hold a town hall meeting in Iowa and tour an energy company facility there as part of a Midwest swing next week to discuss jobs and the economy. While there will be report on Consumer Confidence, and on the final trading day GDP report will be announced along with Consumer Sentiment and Employment Cost Index while from Europe Greece will again be in focus as the country has appealed to its European partners and the IMF for emergency loans
● State Bank of India (SBI), up 10.40%, was the biggest gainer on the Nifty in the week. Managing Emissions has signed an MoU with State Bank of India (SBI) to provide energy efficient plants to rural India, through micro finance loans. The project involves building bio gas plants that wil reduce green house gas emissions by reducing the consumption of conventional fuel such as firewood, LPG and kerosene.
● HCL Technologies was another major gainer on the Nifty during the week, gaining 10.26%. The company has reported a phenomenal increase in standalone net profit, which stood at Rs 262.57 crore for the quarter ended March 31, 2010, up 72.10% as compared to Rs 152.57 crore for the quarter ended March 31, 2009. Total income has increased by 20.86% to Rs 1321.17 crore from Rs 1093.07 crore for the quarter ended March 31, 2009.
● Sun Pharma was the biggest loser on the Nifty this week, shedding 6.89%. The jury in the U.S. District Court for New Jersey rejected allegations on Pfizer by Sun Pharmaceutical Industries for using its patent on Protonix acid reflux drug, as the original patent on Protonix, known chemically as pantoprazole, is held by Swiss drugmaker Nycomed and was licensed to Wyeth, which is now owned by Pfizer.
● Tata Steel, down 6.81%, was another major loser on the Nifty in the week. Commodities stock were badly hit during the week as traders offloaded positions in an attempt to move away from risky assets after the US Securities and Exchange Commission charged Goldman Sachs, the major commodity dealer with fraud. Tata steel’s European arm, Tata Corus Rail (France) is looking at the European market for supplying longer 108-metre rails to tap the growing demand for high-speed rail lines.
Technical Viewpoint -
S&P CNX Nifty
During the week, S&P CNX Nifty touched the highest level of 5331.80 on April 22, 2010 and the lowest point of 5160.90 on April 19, 2010. On the last trading day of the week, the Nifty closed at 5304.10, with a weekly gain of 41.50 points or 0.79%. For the coming week, 5199.40 followed by 5094.70 levels are likely to be good support levels for the Nifty, while the index may face resistance at 5370.30 and 5436.50 levels.
NSE Weekly Chart
Highest In OI (Index Futures, Index Option)
Highest In OI (Stock Futures, Stock Option)
The US markets made it another week of gain and Dow rose for the eighth straight week. Though the start of the
markets was not as good as the concerns of fraud case against Goldman Sachs was still looming on the minds of
investors but the SEC voted 3-2 along party lines to press its case against the banking major, that gave a sense that
the vote wasn’t unanimous and then only the markets started stabilizing. The SEC said the company didn’t inform
clients about conflicts of interest in mortgage investments it sold. On the other hand, Goldman has said it would fight
the charges. For the week, the Dow Jones industrial average closed up by 185.62 points, or 1.68%, at 11,204.28. The
Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose 25.15 points, or 2.10%, to 1,217.28 while the Nasdaq composite index is up 48.89
points, or 1.97%, at 2,530.15.
The week kept buzzing with good earnings reports that boosted the morale of the investors. Goldman Sachs reported that
its first-quarter profit nearly doubled on higher trading revenue. Apple Inc reported that its first-quarter profit jumped
90% and it sold nearly 9 million of its popular iPhone smart phones for the three months that ended March 27.
Though there were concerns once again from the Euro zone during the mid of the week as Greece’s borrowing costs
jumped to record highs. The yield on 10-year Greek debt rose to 8.4%, up more than two and one-half percentage
points since the start of 2010 and 2.5 times the 3.085 percent yield that Germany pays, though the country finally
decided to activate European Union and International Monetary Fund aid.
There were some good economic reports as well, the Labor Department reported that the number of people applying
for unemployment benefits dipped to 456,000 last week, in line with expectations, after rising unexpectedly the past
couple of weeks. On the final trading day the markets got a big boost after the Commerce Department said sales of
new homes jumped 27 percent in March, bouncing off a record low in February. It was the best month since July and
the biggest monthly increase in 47 years. However much of the recent big gains in home sales were likely fueled by
customers who are trying to qualify for federal tax credits that will expire at the end of this month.
European market remained on the defensive after Greece and the EU-IMF officials negotiated details of the emergency
loans. While other indices Spain and Portugal led the decliners in the region as investors focused on rising debt burdens of
these nations. On the whole the mood remained somber for the region though DAX 30 closed higher by 1.28%. FTSE 100
closed with a decline of 0.35% as IMF lower the growth rate of the country.
Germany, the world’s third largest economy showed improving business sentiment after a closely watched survey gave the brightest outlook from 7,000 firms since May 2008 of the country.
Europe’s statistics agency found that Greece’s budget deficit last year was even larger than previously thought. The findings pushed Greece closer to tapping loans from 15 European countries and the International Monetary Fund. Moody’s Investor Services downgraded Greece’s debt and said more downgrades could be coming. Greek Prime Minister Papandreou asked to activate emergency loans of nearly $60 billion from the IMF and the EU. Greece needs to raise around €10 billion in May to cover redemptions, coupon payments and its primary government deficit.
Industrial new orders for EU16 area increased by 1.5% in February 2010, after a decrease of 1.6% in January and in EU27 new orders rose by 1.1% in February, after an increase of 0.3% in January 2010.
The U.K. economy shrank 0.3% in the quarter ended March from a year ago and increased 0.2% from the previous quarter. Industrial production rose 0.7%, services increased 0.2% and construction slumped 0.7% in the quarter according to the Office for National Statistics data released. U.K. GDP rose 0.2% in the first quarter from the last quarter in 2009. This was the second consecutive quarterly economic expansion since the first quarter of 2008. Fourth quarter 2009 unemployment rate was 7.8%. The International Monetary Fund estimated 2010 UK growth rate of 1.3% and in 2011 lowered the estimate to 2.5% from 2.7%. The agency also suggested that lower pound will aid the recovery faster.
The Asian markets mostly declined in the passing week and barring few indices all the major indices suffered considerable
losses during the week. Japan’s debt burden is expected to keep rising in the absence of a sustained economic recovery
according to a Fitch Rating report. The Nikkei 225 was down by 1.70%, Chinese market suffered the deepest cut and lost
4.69%, Hang Sang was down by 2.84%; on the other hand KLSE Composite gained 0.30% and Seoul Composite was up
China’s economy is likely to grow by about 9.9 percent this year, compared with a previous outlook of 9.1 percent, according to forecasts published by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
Japan’s exports soared 43.5% to 6.01 trillion yen on rising demand from rest of Asia, gaining for the fourth straight month according to the ministry of finance. Imports increased 20.7% to 5.1 trillion yen, yielding a trade surplus of 948.9 billion yen in March from a 540 billion yen deficit in the comparable period a year ago. Overall, exports dropped 17.1% to 59 trillion yen for the fiscal year ending March, while imports decreased 25.2% to 53.8 trillion yen. The surplus for the fiscal year rose to 5.2 trillion yen from a deficit of 64.8 billion yen last year.
China may increase some taxes levied on people’s third or subsequent homes, raising costs for speculative buyers amid a government clampdown on the pricey sector. Beijing has launched a campaign to cool the property sector after rapid price rises in some markets, including by increasing down-payment requirements and mortgage rates for people buying their second, third or subsequent properties.
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