Cee flash krka 05.08.2009
Rising margin pressure
IFRS cons FY/e 31.12
Sales (€ m)
Relative to SVSM
EBITDA (€ m)
EBIT (€ m)
Net income (€ m)
Next corporate events
Dividend yield (%)
Although the revenues of Krka remain relatively resilient to the economic crisis, to reflect higher-than-
expected margin pressure in CEE and CIS, we have revised downwards our earnings forecasts and
valuation for the company. We continue to forecast write-offs of € 10.9m on overdue trade receivables
in CIS in 2009 and expect that Krka will need to give further smaller price allowances to CIS
wholesalers. On the back of rising margin pressure, we have lowered our net profit forecast by 2.0% to
€ 231.3m (+48.3% y/y) for 2009, 4.2% to € 219.8m (-5.0% y/y) for 2010 and 4.8% to € 233.0m (+6.0% y/y)
for 2011. Factoring in a marginally lower risk-free rate, our fair value estimate has edged down 5.2% to
€ 97.4 per share, although this still implies 36.9% upside. We maintain our Buy rating on Krka, which
remains our top pick in the CEE pharma sector.
Buy rating maintained
• New product launches boost sales:
Krka recently obtained marketing registration from the European
Medicines Agency (EMEA) for its generic version of Plavix (clopidogrel), Viagra (sildenafil), an Alzheimer drug (rivastigmine) and Novonorm (repaglinide). The company also won lawsuits recently that lifted the ‘temporary ban’ on sales of several of Krka’s high potential generic drugs containing the active ingredients valsartan and montekulast. We estimate these new drugs could add € 20m to Krka’s top line in 2009 and € 30m in 2010.
• Pessimistic consensus forecast:
Our 2009 net profit estimate is 36% above the consensus as we expect
reversal of earlier created provisions. In May the European Patent Office ruled that Krka had not infringed the patent on atorvastatin (active ingredient in Lipitor, Pfizer’s blockbuster anti-cholesterol drug). Thus by the end of 2009 we expect Krka to reverse the € 69.3m provision created for this issue. The release of this provision is the key reason for the € 70m difference between the consensus and our own EBIT estimate for 2009.
• European Commission’s investigation poses a risk:
The EU has started an investigation into the potential
collaboration of Servier, Krka and three other generic pharma companies in hindering the generic entry of perindopril into the EU. Although Krka is confident that the claim is unfounded, in a worst-case scenario we believe the fine could amount to several million euros.
• Our top pick among CEE pharmas:
On a 2010F P/E of 10.9x, Krka trades at a 3% discount to CEE peers.
However, we believe a premium is warranted by Krka’s safe business model, deep generic pipeline and the management’s sound track record. Our fair value implies a 2009F P/E of 15.0x, or a 40% premium to our estimated fair P/E for the sector. The highly attractive valuation of Krka makes it the top pick in our CEE pharma universe.
Refer to important disclosures, disclaimers and analyst certifications at the end of the body of this research.
This publication has been prepared by KBC Securities N.V.’s Polish Branch, KBC Securities Hungarian Branch Office, and Patria Finance a.s. (Czech Republic) and is distributed through KBC Securities NV or one of its subsidiaries (collectively “KBC Securities”).
KBC Securities Hungarian Branch Office’s registered seat is 1051 Budapest, Roosevelt ter 7/8, Hungary. KBC Securities Hungarian Branch Office is supervised by the Hungarian Financial Supervisory Authority (HFSA). This investment recommendation has been prepared for Hungarian clients but it can be made available to other people as well. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any manner without the prior written consent of KBC Securities or KBC Securities Hungarian Branch Office This publication shall be made public immediately after it has been prepared, on the date indicated on page 1. The date of the closing rate indicated in the publication is the day directly preceding the date of publication of this publication/report.
The definitions of terms applied in the publication:
EBITDA = EBIT + amortization and depreciation EPS = Net profit / No. of shares outstanding
NBV per share = Net Book Value / No. of shares outstanding
CFPS = Cash flow / No. of shares outstanding
Net Financial Debt = Financial debt – Cash equivalents
EV = Market Capitalization + Net Financial Debt
P/CF = Stock Price / (Net Profit + amortization and depreciation)
Gross Dividend Yield = Dividend per share / Stock
List of recommendations concerning Krka issued by KBC Securities NV during the last 12 months
Market price (€)
Date of issue
The recommendations and estimates relating to market values published by KBC Securities Hungarian Branch Office shall be valid for 12 months or until modified. We intend to update the recommendations quarterly. KBC Securities Hungarian Branch Office applied the following assessment methods to compile this investment recommendation: discounted cash-flow (DCF), sector comparison and summary of parts (SOTP). An advantage of using DCF is that future financial profits are also calculated, on the other hand, it is a disadvantage of the model that predictions relating to future financial performance are greatly influenced by the analyst’s opinion. Sector comparison is more independent of the analyst’s opinion but it is usually based on current financial results that might differ from future performance. Analysis based on the summary of parts (SOTP) is advantageous inasmuch as it can be used to compare assessments in cases when a company to be assessed has significant fixed assets and reserves; on the other hand, the method will not take into consideration either the short term or long term growth potential. Interpretation of the recommendation:
BUY – total return is expected to appreciate 10% or more HOLD – total return is expected to be between 10% and –10% SELL – total return is expected to depreciate 10% or more
During the last quarter KBC Securities NV Branch in Warsaw issued 42recommendations:
With respect to making an objective judgement on this investment recommendation, the analyst who prepared it has no legal relationship -such as financial interest in the financial assets in this investment recommendation - that would have influenced him in the preparation of this publication and he has no legal dispute with the Issuer. The analyst preparing this publication has no ownership or other financial interest in the Issuer and has no ownership in the market of the financial assets indicated in the publication. The analyst had not obtained any of the securities issued by the Issuer before they were publicly offered. KBC Securities Hungarian Branch Office. had no contractual relationship with the Issuer with respect to the provision/use of investment services for 12 months prior to releasing this investment recommendation, and it had no contractual relationship with Issuer with respect to the preparation of an investment recommendation when this investment recommendation was prepared. The Issuer has not been informed about this investment recommendation. In the 12 months prior to releasing this investment recommendation, KBC Securities Hungarian Branch Office did not manage or co-manage the public offering of the Issuer’s financial assets and it has no ownership in Issuer exceeding 5% of the Issuer’s registered capital. The analyst receives compensation based on various factors including the total income of his/her employer, part of which is generated by the investment activities of the employer, but he/she is not compensated for drawing up the specific investment recommendations included in this report. The compensation of the analyst involved in drawing up the investment recommendation is not linked to KBC Securities Hungarian Branch Office ‘s transactions performed for its own account. The analysts have acted with reasonable care upon drawing up this investment recommendation. This analysis of the relevant companies and securities is based on the analysts’ personal opinions of those companies and securities. The opinions, predictions and estimations published in this report reflect the analysts’ personal conviction at the time when this publication was drawn up. This offer has been drawn up in accordance with the principles of methodological accuracy and objectivity, based on public information considered reliable by KBC Securities Hungarian Branch Office. The information used was publicly available. This publication is provided solely for the information of and use by professional investors who are expected to make their own investment decisions without undue reliance on this publication. Investors must decide themselves about the appropriateness of an investment in any of the securities referred to herein, based on the advantages and risks involved, based on their own investment strategy, and based on their legal, fiscal and financial position. The authors and issuers of the investment recommendation assume no liability for any risk factors influencing the content of the investment recommendation, particularly for the operating risks associated with the companies included, for political risks, exchange rate risks or risks related to the reliability of information. KBC Securities Hungarian Branch Office’s operations are governed by internal regulations approved by HFSA that ensure, with respect to investment recommendations, the prevention of conflicts of interests, the separation of organisational units in charge of different activities and the control of the flow of confidential information including the limitation of access to information, and proper work conditions for the analysts who prepare investment recommendations. The Polish branch of KBC Securities N.V., Kredyt Bank S.A., KBC Securities Hungarian Branch Office, Patria Finance a.s., KBC Securities and employees of any of the above entities assume no liability for the accuracy of this recommendation, for its completeness, or for any investment decision made on the basis of the recommendation, or for any damage incurred as a result of any investment decision made based on this offer. Copyright: 2009. KBC Securities Hungarian Branch Office
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