The HTR2 [KM] Screen – Version 8 Aug 07
The [KM] screen was designed with a greater emphasis on pure data and statistics to facilitate fast analysis of live longshots and tournament plays. It is a more advanced screen than the [Prgm] with considerably more information. Click the [KM] button at the top of the main screen to view a race. If you wish to return to the program screen, click the [Prgm] button. Headers The top header that is shown with all screens in HTR2 has the following information:
• Post-Time (shown in your local time, you can set the Time Zone from the load screen. • Distance and Surface; example: 8.5D = 8 ½ furlongs on (Fast) dirt. “T” = Turf and a
• Class description and Purse; example: 3yrNW1$25,000
• Vi – Volatility Index. • EPR (Estimated Performance Rating). This is similar to a “par” except that it is based on
the current field strength and can be compared to the horse PAC-PER (pace and performance ratings) found on the Prgm report.
• Race Description; Unk, Rule of 50, Q5=1, and Chaos.
• PL-mode; this refers to the Paceline Mode in use. The default is PL-5 and most users
Pn – This is the official track program number or saddle cloth betting number. Use it for betting purposes the same as a track program. PP – The Post-Position or gate slot the horse will run out of. If a horse is scratched, click the large SCRATCH button at the bottom of the main screen and remove it from the race by un- checking it. This will not only instantly update the PP placement, but all factors on the screen will re-compute. Important – don’t confuse this number with the Pn, they are not always the same, use Pn only for bets. Horse name – truncated to save space on the screen. Ag – age and gender; i.e. 3f = a 3yr filly ; 7g = 7-year old gelding MLO – Morning Line Odds as assigned by the track. Our data comes in about 24 hours prior to first post. Many tracks will remove the overnight (also eligible) before our files are prepared and will update the MLO. Others do not, such as the NY tracks and the MLO will be subject to distortion due to multiple scratches. Ch – equipment and medication changes such as blinkers and lasix are noted here. L1 = First time lasix; L2 = 2nd time lasix; bo = blinkers ON; bx = blinkers OFF Shp-S-D-CLA – Shp column lists the name of the track where the horse last raced if it is not the same as today’s track. The (#) indicates that this is a foreign racetrack
S – surface change indicator: T= Turf to Dirt; D=Dirt to Turf; W= Wet track last time D – distance change indicator: R= Route to Sprint; S= Sprint to Route CLA – Class drop indicator, shows last class type if the horse is dropping in company
Under the ‘CLA’ column, a horse making its first ever start in a claimer (minimum 2 lifetime starts) will be designated with a ^ suffixed to the class level last raced. Examples: Msw^ = exits a maiden special race and today is its first start ever in a maiden claimer. Nw1^ = last raced in an allowance non-winners, making first ever start as a claimer. There are good and bad implications with this move. Most often it is a logical drop in company to give a losing runner an improved shot at winning. The categorical class change can be a welcome benefit for many horses that have been racing over their head against much tougher. On the other hand, the trainer may be ‘dumping’ damaged goods and looking to get rid of a money burner. LAY – layoff or number of days since the last race.
Ex: 078 = horse has been off 78 days; FTS = first time starter (@) = It now indicates that the horse finished far back in its most recent start - period. This could be a situation such as “eased”, “lost rider”, “pulled up”, “distanced”, etc., or if the horse finished 20 lengths or more back at the finish. Often there are excuses, such as mud or trouble, so consider the @ as a flag, not an elimination method. (<) = Long layoff – 180+ days. LW-#-wk – days since the last workout took place. Use with the layoff (LAY) to determine recent work and activity patterns, the (#) column lists the number of reported workouts since the last start. If the horse is a FTS, it is the number of reported workouts last 30 days, the wk is the workout rating. Wk – this is key factor in HTR2 and very effective when combined with other positive performance factors. It is an excellent number to rate horses with limited past-performance information and terrific for uncovering live longshots. The rating is based on the last four workouts-activity pattern. Wk Scale 88-95
Ok if ranked best in field; normal range for 2yr
No negative meaning. Most likely workout data is sparse, missing or in error and judgment is not warranted
Markers used with the Wk rating (+) a strong workout pattern (85 or higher)
(*) a solid workout pattern or ranked best in field H4C: Horse for Course Rating. Uses the data from the HHR (Horse History/Records) Screen. 5+ = loves today’s distance-surface and/or track-surface 4+ = had good success at the dist-surf and/or track-surface 2 or 3 = limited success in a few tries 1 = one try was successful at today’s dist-surf and/or track-surf PED + FT – This is the pedigree section. The PED or pedigree rating is based on today’s distance and surface and the sire and broodmare-sire breeding/performance statistics. The rating ranges from 050 – 999. A rating of 450 or higher will receive a (+) marker suffixing the PED indicates the horse has breeding that tends to be statistically strong in the race dist/surf situation. Top rating will receive an (*) if less than 450. PED ratings are best utilized with maidens, turf races or anytime there is new distance or surface for the horse. They work great with young horses in all situations.
The FT rating is a percentile marker from 01-99 that rates the horse when it is making its first start on a new surface or if it is the debut effort. Trn Rtg – similar algorithm and point scale used below for jockey rating. However the‘400’ level is a major benchmark that reveals the “super trainer”. The “super trainers” are those that are winning too often and too consistently to be using standard methods alone – so perhaps there is more in that feed trough than hay and oats! “c” = claimed last out by the trainer “r” = re-claim by the trainer (+) or (*) after the trainer ratings alert to the top ranked or high percentage individuals. (+) = ‘super trainer’ 400 rating or higher. TPG (Trainer Power Grade) – This rating added to HTR2 July 2006 and requires the user download the Trainer Stats (text) file along with the regular Racefile. This separate file is available on all download menus for every race card. The Trainer Stats file can be viewed in HTR2 by clicking the [Trnr] button at the top of the main screen. But the statistics can be overwhelming and difficult to decipher. The TPG grade is computed after the file is scanned for the data. The statistics are linked together for a firm appraisal of the trainer success and the various angles present for the horse, such as changes to equipment, surface, layoff, claim, etc. Read more about the TPG in the PDF docum”. Jky Rtg – If there is (#) or (+) in front of the Jky Rtg, it means there is a change of rider since the last start. The (#) is most common as it indicates a typical jockey change that does not have any clear alert value. The (+) is a “positive” rider change to take notice of and means the jock has won with the horse in the past or a top rider takes over. Jocks are rated on a 365-day scale using several statistical measures. Ratings are updated daily. An (+) or (*) after the jockey ratings alert to the top ranked or high percentage individuals.
JKY Impact 400-550 Outstanding top rider that wins nearly every day 350-399 Top jock on any circuit 300-349 Solid winning rider 250-299 Average range 200-249 Below average rider 50-199
T+J – This is the trainer + jockey win percentage in tandem if the duo have more than 10 starts together over the last 365-days. A strong benchmark is 25% or more. Q – Quirin speed points. Shown as +7, 3, etc. The (+) here marks those horses with clear early speed and helps you define a possible speed duel. Speed points are based on the Quirin scale of quantifying early speed and first call position from the last 4 races. QP = 8 is the highest rating and QP = 0 is the lowest. Blank = not rated. QP scale +8 or +7
Could not be rated, does have any qualifying races
R – Running Style designation, predicted early position for today’s race at first call. F Wants the lead and will likely fight for it E Up close or on the lead early P Presser or stalker, within a few lengths of the lead, front half of field. S Sustained, makes a late run, will likely be positioned in rear half of the field R Last down the backstretch E (Early velocity rank) – same as Fr1 velocity ranking. Horse rank = 1 indicates that it has the fastest first-call fraction in the field. L (Last velocity rank) – same as L/P velocity; a combination of the final two fractions. Rank = 1 indicates the strongest closer in the race. The * next to E and L is for the top rank (r = 1). The + indicates a double strength indicator. +E Fr1 = 1 and Fr2 = 1 +L Fr3 = 1 and Fr2 = 1 PAC-PER ratings are congruent to the EPR found in the header. The EPR estimates the winning PAC-PER figure that will be run by this field. Complete past-performances with all the PAC-PER ratings can be found on the [PPQ] screen. The ratings for the horse are found on the far right of the running lines. The ratings on the left side of that screen are ‘race’ ratings.
PAC – pace rating at second call, on a scale from 070 – 115, highest is best. Generally follows the scale used for Quirin style figures (see below). PER – overall performance rating scaled from 070 – 115, highest is best. Follows the scale used with Quirin style figures, but the PER is an original rating with HTR and includes pace in the calculation. (*) top ranked Notes Second call is 4f mark in sprints and 6f mark in routes. Notes – one of three items displayed that are often key for success of longshot. HTR=1, FC>85 or CLA=1 (K) Rating – this is the primary contender rating used in HTR. The Prgm screen and most other screens are sorted from top to bottom with this rating, highest is best. All horses receive a K-rating, which is computed from multiple handicapping factors, ratings and algorithms depending on the race situation and character of the field. (+) higher percentage K when rated 110 or higher. The K rating has definitive statistical correlation from data samples large and small. The top-4 ranked with the K-rating win more than 7 out of 10 races. There are almost no ties in the rating to distort the statistics. There also no blanks with the K as 100% of all entrants will receive a rating, including first time starters. Look at the overall North American win rates below K rank =1 30% K rank =2 21% (51%) K rank =3 12% (63%) K rank =4 10% (73%) Special Ratings and Notations
$ and $$ - the dollar signs are an instant alert to possible price plays, overlays, longshots and “bombs”. We don’t catch every big price, but the $’s get a lot of them. To receive these designations, the MLO must be 6/1 or higher. The $$ are particularly potent at pointing out “live” runners at high odds as it must include a strong Wk rating in tandem with top-ranked additional factor. The $ and $$ are found on nearly every screen, usually listed to the far right. XF and HF – Extreme Favorite and Hyper Favorite. XF and HF have specific data parameters that identify them as very high percentage win types. XF win approximately 40% and HF will score 50% of the time and they comprise part of the trifecta in 80% of their races. These horses are almost always heavily favored. The HF is also a K110+. This is shown in the same column that displays the $ and $$. Kline – is associated with the K-rating and is the betting line derived from it. The Kline is based on accurate probability prediction. The Kline is an excellent value line as well as a self-adjusting
morning line (after scratches, the MLO do not change, the Kline will re-compute). Use the Kline to determine which horses are severe overlays and underlays. The ">" next to the KLine indicates a possible overlay, or a KLine that is less than MLO. Note on Scratches and all HTR ratings. One of the key advantages of using computer handicapping software such as HTR2 is the ability to improvise on the race. This is particularly true when scratches occur. You can instantly remove these horses using the [SCRATCH] screen (large button found at the bottom of the main screen). All ratings including K and the Kline will instantly be re-computed to assess the remaining field. Odds – Will show the final odds for the race if the results and chart have been downloaded to the working directory. F – Shows finish positions W, P, S and 4 if the results and chart have been downloaded to the working directory. Pn – This is the official track program number or saddle cloth betting number. Use it for betting purposes the same as a track program.
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