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Microsoft powerpoint - recent developments in mortality 13-06-07.ppt

Recent developments in mortality
We are seeing unprecedented change
For men aged 65-74 in England & Wales
the reduction in mortality rates over the past 15 years was similar to that
achieved over the previous 150 years
We are seeing unprecedented change
reduction in
mortality
rates for
England &
Wales aged
(smoothed)
We are seeing unprecedented change
In the UK actuaries’ estimates of male probably changed more in the past 10
years than in the previous 100 years
We are seeing unprecedented change
Projected
expectancy
pensioners
published
actuarial
tables and
projections
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Partly due to the emergence of the “cohort effect”
In the UK men and women born in the period 1925-45 have
experienced more rapid reductions in mortality rates than generations born either before, or after, this period But not entirely…
accelerated for all birth
reduction in
mortality
rates for
England &
year of birth
(smoothed)
Circulatory disease mortality dominates trends
Share of current improvements for 1930-34
birth cohort, males in the population of
England & Wales, by cause of death
Using the p-spline model with cause-of-death data
Mortality data by cause of death for England & Wales is generally Causes need to be sub-divided into relatively broad categories It is important to allow for the impact of changes in cause A model has been developed with James Kirkby Model needs to allow for step-changes in cause classification
smoothed and
adjusted log
mortality
rates for
England &
Wales for all
causes other
circulatory
and cancer by
Model fitted to circulatory causes
mortality
rate decline
by age and
calendar
using a p-
model fitted e
to mortality
rates for
England &
Wales for all
circulatory
Accelerating improvements for circulatory disease
reduction in
circulatory
mortality
rates for
England &
year of birth
(smoothed)
The National Service Framework (NSF) for Heart Disease
aim to reduce the
prevalence of risk
treatment for all
factors in the
people with
treatment for all
cardiovascular
people at
significant risk of
developing
Sets standards for treatment of heart
cardiovascular
Heart Disease NSF progress report for 2006
28% (2000)
24% (2004)
2,900 (2000)
9,700 (2005)
with statins p.a.
Number of patients waiting over 5,663 (Apr
Zero (Mar 2005)
38% (2000)
83% (Apr 2005
30 mins of arrival at hospitalConsultant cardiologists 467 (1999)
725 (Sept 2005)
Cigarette smoking trends
reductions in
the 70s & 80s
Prevalence 40%
of cigarette
Stabilisation
during the
falls since
adults in
Britain,
source: ONS
Accelerating improvements for circulatory disease
Stabilisation
during the
reduction in
circulatory
mortality
rates for
Point to note: there
England &
was no decline in the
pace of improvement
year of birth
during a period of
(smoothed)
stable smoking
prevalence
Further impetus for reductions in cigarette smoking
In England the ban on smoking in enclosed public places will There is evidence that media campaigns are becoming more

Source: https://web.actuaries.ie/sites/default/files/event/2009/10/070613%20R.%20Willets%20Recent%20developments%20in%20mortality.pdf

Vacation scholarships 201

19 Vacation Scholarships were awarded and the 17 accepted by the applicants for tenure during summer 2011 involve the following projects Joanne Healy (Medicine, Aberdeen University), to study the potential of piracetam to protect mitochondria in sepsis and neropathy, under the supervision of Professor Helen Galley. Some drugs used to treat cancer have the unpleasant side effect of sever

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